Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)

SSI: EURUSD Retail Shorts Jump 13.4% as Pair Holds Range

Tuesday, 23 December 2008 10:55:40 GMT

Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

quote ratio %long signal EURUSD 1.39702 -1.23 45% Bullish GBPUSD 1.47959 -1.01 50% Bullish USDJPY 90.129 1.24 55% Bearish USDCHF 1.09065 1.18 54% Bearish USDCAD 1.22233 1.07 52% Bearish AUDUSD 0.68235 1.45 59% Bearish NZDUSD 0.57039 -1.14 47% Bullish EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.04 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.3% lower than yesterday and 2.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.4% higher than yesterday and 2.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.7% stronger than yesterday and 93.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains. GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.9% higher than yesterday and 6.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 6.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.5% stronger than yesterday and 110.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains. USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.14 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.9% higher than yesterday and 23.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.6% lower than yesterday and 1.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 72.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses. USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.15 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 7.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.1% stronger than yesterday and 82.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses. USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.02 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.6% lower than yesterday and 5.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 79.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses. AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.31 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 8.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.6% lower than yesterday and 22.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.6% stronger than yesterday and 92.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses. NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.21 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 17.7% higher than yesterday and 34.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.7% higher than yesterday and 29.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.9% stronger than yesterday and 69.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Technical Major Currencies Report, Thursday December 18 , 2008

Euro

The pair continues to appreciate ignoring the fact being traded in an overbough area as it undergoes a sharp incline on the short term. On the medium term howeever, the pair is targeting the 61.8% correction for the downside channel that started 15-7-2008 and ended on 27-10-2008 where this level lies at 1.4620. Today we see the intraday trend correcting to the downside yet with no effect on the short term trend but since it has reached the key resistance for the upisde channel, it might slightly decline. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3945 and the key resistance at 1.4715. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225.
Support	1.4380	1.4315	1.4285	1.4250	1.4210
Resistance	1.4485	1.4540	1.4575	1.4620	1.4660
Recommendation	...

Great British Pound (GBP)

The pair failed to gather enough bullish momentum to break several critical resistance levels. Today we are back to 1.5460 - 1.5475 levels which will determine the direction of the pair on the short term. Despite seeing positive signals that support the upside movement, the pair continues to weaken but again, the 1.5460 level will determine the fate of the pair. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5345 and the key resistance at 1.5935 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.9400 remains intact with targets at 1.4435 and 1.4095
Support	1.5500	1.5460	1.5415	1.5345	1.5245
Resistance	1.5595	1.5640	1.5680	1.5700	1.5740
Recommendation	Adjustment to the previous position after reaching the stop loss (Buy the pair above 1.5500 with targets at 1.5640 and stop loss below 1.5415) New Recommendation: Sell the pair below 1.5420 with targets at 1.5290 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.5560

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The 87.35 level was able to limit further losses on the pair and resulted in an intraday upside channel. With 87.30 intact and not having a four hour close below it, will keep the upside trend visible on the intraday and short term. However please note that the overall trend is still to the downside. The trading range for today is among the key support at 85.80 and the key resistance at 90.50 The general trend is to the downisde as far as 102.10 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support	87.80	87.50	87.30	86.70	86.45
Resistance	88.35	88.60	89.05	89.45	89.85
Recommendation	Buy the pair above 87.80 with targets at 88.60 and stop loss with a four hour close below 87.20

Technical Analysis, Wednesday December 10, 2008

Date: 2008/12/10
Time: 07:33 (GMT +2)
Ticker: EUR
Last: 1.2818
Pivot: 1.25
1st sup. 1.25
2nd sup. 1.212
3rd sup. 1.2
1st res. 1.31
2nd res. 1.33
3rd res. 1.36

Title: EUR/USD ST: bounce
Summary: As long as 1.25 is not broken down, we favour an upmove with 1.31 and then 1.33 as next targets.
Story: We move up our pivot point to 1.25.
Our preference: As long as 1.25 is not broken down, we favour an upmove with 1.31 and then 1.33 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: A break below 1.25 would invalidate our bullish scenario. the currency could then decline to 1.2.
Comment: The daily technical indicators are reversing up and are advocating for a technical rebound.
Trend: ST limited rise; MT bearish.
Supports and resistances:
1.36 ***
1.33 **
1.31 **
1.2818 last
1.25 ***
1.212 **
1.2 **


Euro Outlook
04:32 GMT December 10th The EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.2920 after easing from 1.3000 during the US afternoon when Wall Street slumped into the close. After trading at 1.2913 the EUR/USD started to grind higher when Asian equities bucked the US lead and moved higher. Reports that Congress agreed to a bailout plan for the automakers sent Asian equities much higher with the Nikkei up over 3% at one stage. The surge higher in equities sparked EUR/JPY buying that helped push the EUR/USD to 1.2960. Good selling interest lined up between 1.2960 and option expiries at 1.3000 helped to discourage aggressive attempts higher, but the EUR/USD remained bid around the 1.2950 level for the balance of the session.
Sentiment towards the EUR/USD is mixed. Some analysts feel that the equity markets will rally into year-end and the USD is due for a broad correction lower due to expectations of aggressive Fed easing and heavy government spending. Others feel that the EUR/USD upside is limited due to risk-aversion remaining high as evidenced by the safety bid in US Treasuries and concerns that year-end USD funding might be difficult. (JN)

Yen Outlook
05:25 GMT December 10th USD/JPY and the JPY crosses moved higher in Asia today with the crosses firmly in the lead. Short-covering looks to have been the major theme with JPY as a safe haven destination abating on the now almost consistent stream of bad economic data out of Japan. Yesterday, it was Q3 GDP, today it was October core machinery orders. The Nikkei also surprised to the upside following the plunge on Wall Street overnight, with heavy gains seen in the afternoon following reports that the Bush administration had tentatively agreed on an automaker bail-out package with Congress. Taking its lead from the crosses, USD/JPY rose from 92.08 early to 92.68. Some trader stops are eyed above 93.10, the high yesterday, with larger stops noted above 94.00. EUR/JPY was especially well bid, trading up from 119.01 to 120.07. Trader stops are noted above 120.10 and 120.30 topside and large above 121.00. AUD/JPY rose from 60.53 to 61.47 and NZD/JPY from 49.77 to 50.87. GBP/JPY rose from 135.80 to 136.99. Despite the rather large rally in the Nikkei however, fresh buy-side flows were sparse, limiting the upside for most pairs.

Sterling Outlook
04:03 GMT December 10 The GBP/USD opened in Asia around 1.4760 after
retreating from 1.4840 in the last couple of hours of US trading due to a weak
close on the Dow. The GBP/USD spent the Asian session churning between 1.4735/85
and underperformed the other dollar-bloc currencies due to heavy GBP/NZD selling
that was rumoured to be an Asian central bank. The GBP/NZD fell from 2.7280 to
2.6960 as a result of the selling flow. Reports that Congress agreed to a
bailout for troubled US automakers boosted Asian equities and sent the EUR, AUD
and NZD higher against the USD and JPY, but the GBP lagged due to the GBP/NZD
selling flow.
The GBP has been sold heavily against a number of currencies this week,
as investors fear that the UK will be hit particularly hard by the global
slowdown and the BOE will be particularly aggressive in easing rates. The
GBP/USD could get support if European equities follow the Asian lead, but talk
of more GBP selling to be done on the crosses could limit the gains.

Swiss Outlook
December 9th USD/CHF opened in NY at 1.2144 and began shedding its overnight
gains as equities retraced much of Monday"s gains, eventually pulling the
EUR/CHF off its midday highs just shy of key technical resistance at 1.5665.
USD/CHF fell in the final few hours of the London session, eventually running
into buyers between yesterday"s 1.2020 low and 1.2000. Hints from ECB"s Trichet
that the bank might pause for a meeting or two before easing and a rise in the
Swiss jobless rate to 2.7% from 2.6% were fodder in early London trading to sell
the CHF, but the ECB may be shooting itself in foot and the SNB may decide to
cut less if they suspect the ECB are going to go slow. The franc managed to
recover in the US as recent hefty CHF losses against a variety of currencies
left it ripe for profit-taking in the midst of stock selling. The arrest of the
Gov of Illinois for trying to profit from Senator Omaba"s seat may have caused a
stir, though early reports are the Pres-elect is not involved in the charges.
The SNB rate decision on Thursday is the next major event risk, with only
the Swiss ZEW survey for December due out Wednesday.

Canadian Dollar Outlook
21:37 GMT, December 9th USD/CAD opened Toronto around 1.2575 and was already
trading at 1.2650 ahead of the BoC 75bp rate cut. Local money markets had priced
in 60bp, so the fact it came in at the extreme of expectations and at 1.5% is at
a 50-yr low, drove USD/CAD up to 1.2743 at its peak. There was talk of a large
pension fund accumulating USD on the way up. US IBD/TIPP optimism index fell
5.8, its largest drop in 3-yrs, and US pending home sales fell 0.7%, but were
better than expected. Oil gyrated alongside stocks, oil closed down $1.64 at
$42.07 on the NYMEX; the Dow dropped 2.72%. When oil rallied to $43.75 at noon
USD/CAD fell to 1.2555, but bounced back to close at 1.2645 after CAD/JPY sales.
A report from the EIA forecasting that 2008 will reveal an average drop in
oil demand of 50k bpd, and a further drop of 450k bpd on average in 2009 drove
oil prices and stocks lower as energy companies sold off. This is the first drop
in world demand since 1983 that followed 3-yrs of falling demand which heralded
a 6-yr price drop. CAD/JPY sales helped bully USD/CAD higher as equities fell,
the pair dropped from 73.63 afternoon highs to 72.85 at the close.

Forex - Dollar fell against Euro after ECB rate cut

ex News and Events: The Dollar fell against the Euro on Thursday as some investors lauded the European Central Bank's bolder-than-expected interest rate cut as a proactive step to stave off a deep recession in the 15-nation region. The ECB, seen by market participants as being behind the curve in lowering borrowing costs to boost growth, made its biggest ever cut, lowering benchmark interest rate by 75bp to 2.5%. Most economists had expected a smaller, 50bp cut this month. The Sterling also bounced off session lows against the Dollar. The Bank of England cut its key rate by 100bp to 2%, the lowest level since 1951, and said further steps would be required to prevent a credit squeeze tipping the economy into deep recession. The Yen rose sharply, as falling stock prices and persistent worries about a deepening global economic downturn prompted investors to keep unwinding riskier positions. Yesterday, EurUsd was up 0.54% at 1.2774, rebounding from the session low of 1.2551. GbpUsd was down 0.66% at 1.4681, having touched a more than 6 year low of 1.4470. EurGbp hit a record high at 0.8726 before closing 1.22% up at 0.8702. UsdJpy was down 0.74% at 92.47. EurJpy fell 0.19% to 118.13. Traders were reluctant to take big bets ahead of a key US employment report on Friday. The US economy probably lost 340k jobs in November. US initial claims data released yesterday pointed to further deterioration in the labor market while new orders received by US factories plummeted for a third straight month during October. But analysts said while the deterioration in the labor market is accelerating, many market participants have already priced in an ugly jobs number, and so it may take a larger decline to trigger a major market move. Aggressive central bank rate easing around the world was the main theme in the currency market on Thursday. Sweden chopped rates by surprisingly 175bp, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a large 150bp easing. Falling interest rates across the globe take away the yield attraction of currencies whose countries previously had high interest rates, giving further support to the Yen and the Dollar and weighing on higher-yielding units.

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT): 09:00 NOK October Manufacturing output -0.3% vs 0.1% 11:00 EUR October Industrial Orders 0.4% vs -8% (mom) 11:30 EUR US Ambassador to EU speaks on Defense Policy 13:00 CAD November Employment change -25k vs 9.5k 13:00 CAD November Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.2% 13:30 USD November Manufacturing Payroll -80k vs -90k 13:30 USD November Non-Farm Payroll -340k vs -240k 13:30 USD November Unemployment 6.8% vs 6.5% 20:00 USD October Consumer credit $2b vs $6.9b

The Risk Today: EurUsd Market is still trading in the last 3-week trading range 1.2330 – 1.3298 but breaking up the triangle consolidation pattern. This may open the way to 1.3500 target equal to 1.3302-1.2334 spread. On the further upside, only a return over 1.4000 (former trendline support) and 1.5000 will release actual pressure and may put key resistance 1.6000 into focus. Resistance holds 1.4002 former trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.3298 end October high. On the downside, recent weakness below 1.2690 may open the way down to trendline support 1.2208. Next long-term support holds 1.1640 November 2005 low. Further support holds 1.0739 September 2003 low. GbpUsd Market dropped as low as 1.4470 yesterday in current 3-month downtrend dropping from late October 1.6673 high. Strong supports hold 1.3682 March 2001 low. On the upside, strong resistance holds 1.6673 30th October high ahead of 1.7080 (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 – 1.4558). Further resistance holds 1.7860 (50% retracement). Trading range is set between Tuesday 25th 1.5534 high and 1.4470 December low, respectively initial resistance and support. UsdJpy Market confirmed Monday the break down November triangle pattern. Yesterday, pressure did open the way down to 92.88 low. Strong support holds 90.91 24th October low. Further downtrend may open 79.70 April 1995 low. On the upside, strong resistance holds 100 pivot point, but only a recovery over 103 upper trendline and 105 pivot point will put focus again on 108 and 110.67 15th August high. Initial resistance holds 97.43 last week high. UsdChf Market hit 1.2298 high on 21st November. Further strength may look for 1.2463 strong resistance ahead of 1.2506 (61.8% retracement of 1.4278 – 0.9639 decline). On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.1605 initial support and 1.1203 30th October low would undermine the current uptrend and reverse through 1.0692 22nd September low and down to 1.0500 and 1.0375. Such a move may look for 1.0013 15th July low in front of 0.9637 17th March low.

Technical Major Currencies Report, Wednesday, December 03, 2008

EURO

As expected the euro head to the upside in a correctional move, yet today we can see a downside pattern over intraday basis where the 61.8% represents the neckline for the model and for that the downside move is expected as far as trading is below 1.2675, from another side breaching 1.2730 with hourly closing above might help the euro move to the upside for a while.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2820 and the key support level at 1.2360.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2340 and 1.2225.

Support 1.2675 1.2645 1.2635 1.2575 1.2540
Resistance 1.2725 1.2750 1.2790 1.2800 1.2820
Recommendation Sell euro below 1.2700 with targets at 1.2635 and 1.2575, stop loss above 1.2759

Great British Pound (GBP)

Sterling managed to rise yesterday after heading towards minor support levels over the short term around 1.4790 and here it is today again heading to the downside as we expect volatile trading that will be biased to the downside as even with yesterday's incline the pair did not manage to trade above the 100 Moving Average over 4-hour basis at 1.5085.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.5260 and the key support level at 1.4620.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.9400 remains intact; targets are set at 1.4435 and 1.4095.

Support 1.4820 1.4790 1.4740 1.4715 1.4620
Resistance 1.4885 1.4905 1.4935 1.4965 1.5085
Recommendation Sell sterling below 1.4885 with targets at 1.4795, stop loss above 1.4965

Japanese Yen (JPY)

Trading mostly is seen above the 76.4% correction at 93.20 and the sideways trading might push the pair to the downside yet at the same time the possibility for a successful breach to 92.45 support today is slight, as we said this barrier is critical for the pair as trading below it opens the way to extend the bearish wave beyond 90 levels; still the general trend is still to the downside and the pair might fluctuate heavily today yet as far as 92.45 remains intact will push the pair noticeable to the upside.
The trading range for today is among the key resistance level at 95.90 and the key support level at 88.90.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 104.60 remains intact; targets are set at 91.95 and 89.30.

Support 93.20 92.85 92.45 92.30 91.50
Resistance 93.65 93.90 94.10 94.45 94.60
Recommendation Buy the pair above 92.85 with targets at 93.70, stop loss with 4-hour closing below 92.30

Swiss Franc (CHF)

Despite that we do not abandon our view over the negativity for the pair yet we expect an upside move today for the dollar against the franc pair as the 1.2015 minor level over the medium term remained intact and over short term basis the major level today resides at 1.2005; for that the pair might be heading to the upside today while generally our view to the downside remains valid as far at 1.2285 is intact.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2285 and the key support level at 1.1875.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2570 and 1.2780.

Support 1.2050 1.2005 1.1950 1.1915 1.1875
Resistance 1.2125 1.2155 1.2195 1.2235 1.2260
Recommendation Buy the pair at 1.2050 with targets at 1.2155, stop loss with hourly closing below 1.2000

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The upside move validated the channel over intraday basis where the major support resides at 1.2365 and as far as this level is intact the short term trend is to the upside, while the medium term trend that has shifted recently remains to the downside as far as 1.3000 remains intact which is a psychological and technical barrier at the same time a technical barrier as the failed to trade above it forming two tops close to that level; the pair today is to fluctuate clearly and sideways while generally biased to the upside.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2755 and the key support level at 1.2050.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact; targets are set at 1.3305 and 1.3465.

Support 1.2475 1.2410 1.2365 1.2320 1.2305
Resistance 1.2525 1.2550 1.2595 1.2610 1.2630
Recommendation Buy the pair cautiously above 1.2475 with targets at 1.2590, stop loss with hourly closing below 1.2410

Technical Major Currencies Report

EURO

The downside wave is still undergoing for the euro against the dollar that prevailed from yesterday and as we can see the pair is trading above the 76.4% correction at 1.2575 and positive divergence on the RSI is seen which shows the upside move is approaching, meanwhile Stochastic is reflecting the need for further downside move to gather momentum; the pair's movement might be biased to the downside temporarily as we expect an upside move as far as 1.2575 remains intact while further support is seen at 1.2530.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2840 and the key support level at 1.2370.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2340 and 1.2225.

Support 1.2575 1.2540 1.2530 1.2500 1.2450
Resistance 1.2635 1.2645 1.2685 1.2750 1.2790
Recommendation Buy euro cautiously above 1.2580 with targets at 1.2735, stop loss with hourly closing below 1.2500

Great British Pound (GBP)

Yesterday's decline set the possibility for the pair to drop today as well as we can notice trading below 61.8% correction at 1.4935 which is now an important resistance for the pair; continued trading below this level will pressure further downside moves especially if 1.4790 was breached.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.5260 and the key support level at 1.4620.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.9400 remains intact; targets are set at 1.4435 and 1.4095.

Support 1.4790 1.4760 1.4740 1.4715 1.4655
Resistance 1.4905 1.4935 1.4965 1.5030 1.5065
Recommendation Sell sterling below 1.4905 with targets at 1.4790, stop loss above 1.4990

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The pair is now trading around the 76.4% correction at 93.20 and the selling saturation is starting to appear over four-hour basis yet the possibility for further decline is seen towards 92.45 which is one of the most important levels over the short term as according to classical technical analysis breaching this level means further lower bottoms for the pair especially if closing was seen below it over four-hour basis.
The trading range for today is among the key resistance level at 95.90 and the key support level at 88.90.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 104.60 remains intact; targets are set at 91.95 and 89.30.

Support 92.85 92.45 92.30 91.50 90.55
Resistance 93.90 94.10 94.45 94.60 94.90
Recommendation Attempt to buy the pair above 92.80 with targets at 93.90, stop loss with four-hour closing below 92.30

Swiss Franc (CHF)

As expected the pair is finding difficulties to head to the upside as the current bullish wave is considered the last over the medium term and we expect to see a new correction for the pair. After reaching or breaching 1.2235 and 1.2285 we expect this scenario to prevail which will not fail as far as trading is above those levels.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2285 and the key support level at 1.1875.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2570 and 1.2780.

Support 1.2015 1.1950 1.1915 1.1875 1.1840
Resistance 1.2060 1.2120 1.2150 1.2205 1.2235
Recommendation Sell the pair on leaps towards 1.2150 with targets at 1.1930, stop loss above 1.2285

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The upside wave prevailed for longer than expected over intraday basis despite that signals to the downside prevailed as continued trading above 1.2410 keeps the upside valid over intraday basis targeting 1.2510 at least. The short term is now to the downside and we expect it to prevail for the coming period.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2755 and the key support level at 1.2050.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact; targets are set at 1.3305 and 1.3465.

Support
Resistance
Recommendation Buy the pair cautiously above 1.2410 with targets at 1.2510, stop loss below 1.2320

Technical Major Currencies Report

EURO

The euro versus the dollar declined in the awaited correctional wave to test the major support levels which have formed to acquire the pair with upside momentum as the upside signals are clear, if the support level at 1.2650 remains intact will be a positive signal for the upside move expected today while the short term upside wave is still intact and steady with continued trading above 1.2445 while closing on a daily basis below this level reinitiates the downside wave.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2985 and the key support level at 1.2385.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2340 and 1.2225.

Support 1.2655 1.2610 1.2525 1.2490 1.2445
Resistance 1.2735 1.2785 1.2820 1.2850 1.2920
Recommendation Buy euro above 1.2655 with targets at 1.2735, stop loss with hourly closing below 1.2610

Great British Pound (GBP)
The sideways correction is dominating the pair's movement among the 100 MA over 4-hour basis and the 23.6% correction at 1.5525, while this sideways correction might acquire the pair with upside momentum; the favored move remains to the upside as far as trading resumes above 1.5230 which is the 38.2% correction for the upside wave that started on 21-11-2008; the pair might move to the downside to acquire momentum yet still we need to carefully watch the mentioned support at 1.5230.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.5595 and the key support level at 1.4985.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.9400 remains intact; targets are set at 1.4435 and 1.4095.

Support 1.5300 1.5285 1.5180 1.5125 1.5020
Resistance 1.5390 1.5415 1.5475 1.5520 1.5595
Recommendation Buy sterling above 1.5285 with targets at 1.5365, stop loss with four-hour closing below 1.5230

Japanese Yen (JPY)

No major change was seen on the USDJPY pair as the sideways wave still dominates trading in a range that does not extend the 61.8% correction at 94.60 and the minor resistance at 95.75 while the minor support at 95.000 was capable as well of restricting the pair; cautious trading should be applied to benefit from the range yet any breach to the mentioned levels might send the pair in a strong move to either the upside or downside depending on the levels breached.
The trading range for today is among the key resistance level at 97.40 and the key support level at 92.25.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 104.60 remains intact; targets are set at 91.95 and 89.30.

Support 95.05 94.90 94.60 94.45 94.10
Resistance 95.70 95.90 96.15 96.85 97.00
Recommendation Trade cautiously upon the levels stated above

Swiss Franc (CHF)

The expected upside wave was seen which now might be the last upside wave over the short term ahead of indulging in a downside correction for the upside wave that started on 17-03-2008 and neared its peak; steady trading below 1.2285 will confirm the coming correction.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2285 and the key support level at 1.1875.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2570 and 1.2780.

Support 1.2060 1.2015 1.1950 1.1915 1.1875
Resistance 1.2120 1.2150 1.2205 1.2225 1.2285
Recommendation Sell the pair below 1.2150 with targets at 1.2060, stop loss above 1.2235

Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A slight incline for the pair that did not cancel our projections for the downside, the move might be seen over the short term which for that we need to see trading below 1.2410 to confirm the wave and for that we need to trade cautiously today and watch out for the 1.2490 as trading above this level opens the way towards 1.2625.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2755 and the key support level at 1.2050.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact; targets are set at 1.3305 and 1.3465.

Support 1.2410 1.2375 1.2305 1.2295 1.2260
Resistance 1.2475 1.2525 1.2610 1.2630 1.2695
Recommendation Sell the pair at 1.2450 with targets at 1.2305, stop loss above 1.2525

SORRY...

Sorry to all vi$itor..latley im busy at outside...
how ever,i will back to give u $mile$ when u give me...:)
Big Thanks to all...:))

3 day gone!

This week so bad to me...:(
all day trade was FAIl due some mistaken by my self..
hope i can recover back...

Research for Monday..

EU still strong move downtrend at TF4 above...mayb just want finish at TF Weekly..just little bit..
but for this monday morning mayb some GAP was made it...
To all trader EU, just bcarefull trade on Monday...
Tips : Dont make any mistake by some FALSE signal at TF 30 below..follow trend taht day, try to
minimize our loss...be SMARTS..:))

Technical Major Currencies Report Wednesday, November 19, 2008

EURO
The sideways trend with slight tendency to the downisde is dominating trading on the short term between the resistance level at 1.2730 and the support level at 1.2405. We see that the 100 day MA average on the four hour charts is at the resistance level. Momentum indicators have adjusted to show neutral momentom on the same time frame suggesting that if trading remains below the mentioned resistance level, the trend will be to the downside in an attempt to breach the support level.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2405 and the key resistance at 1.2920
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225
Support 1.2605 1.2585 1.2525 1.2485 1.2430
Resistance 1.2730 1.2745 1.2785 1.2835 1.2885
Recommendation Sell the pair below 1.2685 with targets at 1.2490 and stop loss with hourly close above 1.2785

Great British Pound (GBP)
The 1.5075 resistance was able to reverse the pair to the downside after the 23.6% correction level at 1.5050 halted further gains before reaching the key resistance. We still expect the downisde trend for the pair yet volatility could be evident. Only if the pair was able to build a solid base above the 38.2% correction at 1.5140 will it be able to reverse the trend.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4690 and the key resistance at 1.5215
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.9400 remains intact with targets at 1.4435 and 1.4095
Support 1.4910 1.4890 1.4840 1.4760 1.4715
Resistance 1.4985 1.5040 1.5075 1.5105 1.5140
Recommendation Buy the pair below 1.4980 with target at 1.4890 and 1.4840 and stop loss with hourly close above 1.5050

EURO
A slight reverse to the downside today after yesterday's incline failed to reach levels that would reverse the trend to the upside with the most critical level at 1.2885 where as long as trading is below it, the trend will continue to be to the downside. Today we see the bearish trend could face some upside correction but as far as 1.2710 remains intact, the trend is to the downside.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2310 and key resistance at 1.2840
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225

Support 1.2525 1.2490 1.2410 1.2375 1.2345
Resistance 1.2610 1.2670 1.2710 1.2740 1.2770
Recommendation Sell the pair below 1.2605 with targets at 1.2490 and stop loss with hourly close above 1.2885

Technical Major Currencies Report, Monday, November 17, 2008

EURO

The euro retested the major support level for the technical triangular pattern last week and now the pair is trading below the 100 Days MA at 1.2600, despite that upside moves are expected the trend is still to the downside as far as the resistance level at 1.2840 remains intact.

The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2840 and the key support level at 1.2310.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2340 and 1.2225.

Support 1.2510 1.2490 1.2410 1.2375 1.2345
Resistance 1.2605 1.2670 1.2740 1.2770 1.2810
Recommendation Sell euro below 1.2605 with targets at 1.2490, stop loss above 1.2885

Great British Pound (GBP)

The pair attempted last week to trade above the minor resistance level yet it failed as the pair now is trading within the medium term downside trend below the minor support level at 1.4790 and the 127% extension level at 1.4815; for that we expect the pair to attempt to consolidate below the 138.2% extension at 1.4690 to continue the downside to its next target at 1.4435 in intervals during the coming period; the expectations are supported with the Stochastic indicators that are heavily oversold and the negativity on the MACD.

The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.4990 and the key support level at 1.4435.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.9400 remains intact; targets are set at 1.4435 and 1.4095.

Support 1.4715 1.4690 1.4640 1.4595 1.4560
Resistance 1.4775 1.4790 1.4815 1.4835 1.4870
Recommendation Sell sterling below 1.4715 with targets at 1.4600, stop loss with an hourly closing above 1.4815

Japanese Yen (JPY)The pairs attempts to consolidate above 98.25 level failed and continued to decline which created a downside channel over intraday basis; steady trading above 97.80 the major resistance for the channel and below 98.25 will set the pair to attempt 95.70 once more which is the correction level for the upside wave that was seen from 24-10-2008 till 04-11-2008.

The trading range for today is among the key resistance level at 99.50 and the key support level at 94.10.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 104.60 remains intact; targets are set at 91.95 and 89.30.

Support 96.80 96.00 95.70 95.50 95.15
Resistance 97.80 98.25 98.60 99.50 99.90
Recommendation Sell the pair below 97.80 with targets at 96.10, stop loss above 98.60


Swiss Franc (CHF)

Consolidating above 1.1905 as we mentioned earlier is supporting the upside wave, the major resistance level for the medium term upside wave is seen among 1.2060 and the 161.8% correction level at 1.2080, for that we need to watch these levels today for if a breach was not seen successfully the pair will head to the downside supported by the buying saturation on momentum indicators.

The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.2235 and the key support level at 1.1790.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2040 and 1.2062.

Support 1.1950 1.1930 1.1905 1.1865 1.1790
Resistance 1.2040 1.2060 1.2080 1.2140 1.2185
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.1965 with targets at 1.2040, stop loss below 1.1865

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The pair opened to the upside yet below the previous top at 1.2440, due to the price gap we might see the pair head to the downside which will be validated as far as trading is below 1.2440 level mentioned.






Support 1.2335 1.2305 1.2270 1.2220 1.2150
Resistance 1.2390 1.2415 1.2440 1.2460 1.2495
Recommendation Sell the pair below 1.2390 with targets at 1.2220, stop loss with an hourly closing above 1.2440

Technical Major Currencies Report Friday, November 14, 2008

EURO

The euro inclined as it was being oversold yesterday failing to reach our downside targets but the chance is still open since yesterday's upside movements were nothing more than an attempt to retest the key support for the sideways channel that was breached earlier. The pair is trading now near the 100 day MA on the four hour chart at 1.2740 and we see that if trading continues below this level, it could reverse to the downside. The decline today is concerned with 1.2885 where trading below it will also result in a reverse sooner or later.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2375 and the key resistance at 1.3000

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225

Support 1.2670 1.2565 1.2510 1.2485 1.2415
Resistance 1.2740 1.2770 1.2835 1.2885 1.2900
Recommendation Sell the pair carefully below 1.2740 with targets at 1.2590 and stop loss above 1.2913

Technical Major Currencies Report

Thursday, November 13, 2008


EURO

The pair continued to decline after completing the sideways correction we pointed out to earlier where we see the pair now trading below the 100% extension for the downside wave that started on 5-10-2008 and ended on 7-10-2008. This extension lies at 1.2490 and we see that if trading remains below below this level, it will result in further declines to the 138.2% - 127% extensions between 1.2375 and 1.2325 at the very least.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2225 and the key resistance at 1.2795

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225

Support 1.2435 1.2415 1.2375 1.2365 1.2325
Resistance 1.2535 1.2680 1.2695 1.2735 1.2795
Recommendation Sell the pair below 1.2500 with targets at 1.2325 and stop loss above 1.2597


Great British Pound (GBP)

The pair was able to reach the key support for the downside channel and as seen on the relative strength indicator we see signs of divergence as the pair is being oversold on the momentum indicators on the medium term. Despite us believing that the downside trend will continue to take the pair to levels lower than the current levels due to the breach of several historical supports, it will still face a support level that could be strong enough to rebound the pair to the upside in correction movements at 1.4805 followed by 1.4750. However, the breach of these supports will not allow for the occurrence of an upside correction.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4640 and the key resistance at 1.5475

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.9400 remains intact with targets at 1.4700 and 1.4095

Support 1.4870 1.4835 1.4805 1.4750 1.4715
Resistance 1.4990 1.5115 1.5215 1.5330 1.5475
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.4855 with targets at 1.5050 and stop loss below 1.4730


Japanese Yen (JPY)

A sharp decline took the pair to the 61.8% correcton level at 94.60 before rebounding to the upside to currently trade near the 50% correction at 95.65. We see high volatility could dominate trading in the upcoming period yet the rebound from the 61.8% which is known as a critical level will provide the pair with some bullish momentum.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.35 and the key resistance at 98.60

The general trend is to the downside as far as 104.60 remains intact with targets at 91.95 and 89.30

Support 95.65 95.15 94.95 94.60 93.90
Resistance 96.00 96.40 96.80 97.30 98.00
Recommendation Buy the pair above 95.65 with targets at 96.30 and stop loss below 94.43


Swiss Franc (CHF)

The pair failed to build a solid base above 1.1900 and declined several times from there was we see a contracting triangle on the charts while the Stochastic indicator shows the pair being highly overbought. We see the pair is sitll in an upside trend yet trading today should be cautious since if the pair breaches the 1.1790 level and remains below it, this will result in a clear downside movement whereas trading above the 1.1905 level will allow the pair to incline quite quickly.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1685 and the key resistance at 1.2020

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains tintact with targets at 1.1945 and 1.2065

Support 1.1860 1.1815 1.1790 1.1765 1.1745
Resistance 1.1895 1.1905 1.1915 1.1950 1.2020
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.1790 with targets at 1.2000 and stop loss below 1.1671

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Just as we expected yesterday, the upside trend helped the pair incline in no time. The 1.2415 level is a valid target for the pair as it is also the 61.8% correcton for the descending channel that started on 28-10-2008 and ended on 4-11-200. Today we could see the pair experience high volatility as it is being heavily overbought on the intraday charts.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2050 and the key resistance at 1.2640

The general trend is to the upside as fas as 1.1780 remains intact with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3465

Support 1.2305 1.2260 1.2240 1.2200 1.2150
Resistance 1.2375 1.2415 1.2450 1.2495 1.2550
Recommendation Avoid trading today

Technical Major Currencies Report

EURO

The key support for the sideways channel was breached and the pair was able to reach the 100% correction for the descending channel that started on 5-11-2008 and ended on 7-11-2008 where this level lies at 1.2485. Today we see the pair inclining in correction movements in another attempt to retest the support level that was breached yesterday which has now shifted to 1.2750. The minor resistance which is the 61.8% correction for the above mentioned downside channel at 1.2660 could be a critical point for the pair as it might provide it with bearish momentum.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2325 and the key resistance at 1.2990

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2480 and 1.2340

Support 1.2580 1.2535 1.2495 1.2455 1.2410
Resistance 1.2660 1.2695 1.2750 1.2800 1.2880
Recommendation Sell the pair below 1.2750 with targets at 1.2325 and stop loss above 1.2887

The euro lead the first attempt to breakthrough the support levels and end the triangular sideways correction after it rebounded from the resistance levels at 1.29; today the 1.2705 is the major support level for the correctional model and the downside wave is approaching and for validation we need to see clear trading below the mentioned level for the pair to start the downside wave which targets 1.2545 at least.

The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.3055 and the key support level at 1.2510.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact; targets are set at 1.2480 and 1.2340.

Support 1.2705 1.2665 1.2655 1.2590 1.2545
Resistance 1.2760 1.2800 1.2880 1.2990 1.3055